Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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HCSS Focus | Complot in context

9 Dec 2025
Deze HCSS Focus onderzoekt hoe Nederlanders alternatieve verklaringen (of, negatief geformuleerd: ‘complottheorieën') voor maatschappelijke gebeurtenissen beoordelen. We kijken naar psychologische en sociaal-economische factoren, digitale platformdynamieken en de manier waarop mensen informatiebronnen gebruiken. Het rapport maakt onderscheid tussen verschillende soorten narratieven en meerdere plausibiliteitsniveaus. Het biedt geen beleidsrichtingen, maar laat zien hoe divers en gelaagd dit landschap is — en hoe belangrijk transparantie, mediageletterdheid en institutionele kwaliteit zijn voor maatschappelijke stabiliteit.
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HCSS Publieksmonitor Maatschappelijke Stabiliteit | Hoofdlijnen Winterpeiling 2025

3 Dec 2025
Volgens de Winterpeiling van de HCSS Publieksmonitor krijgt de maatschappelijke stabiliteit in Nederland een krappe voldoende (6.1) . Binnenlandse spanningen, dalend vertrouwen in de overheid en groeiende zorgen over extremisme domineren het beeld. Tegelijkertijd blijkt de sociale samenhang de belangrijkste bron van veerkracht. Lees nu de nieuwste analyse van wat Nederlanders zien als grootste dreigingen én sterkste fundamenten van onze samenleving.
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Assessing Europe’s Resilience and Preparedness in an Era of Strategic Risks

2 Dec 2025
Europe’s resilience is still situational, not systemic, concludes a new joint HCSS and CSDS report. The report finds that Europe’s ability to withstand hybrid shocks remains uneven, with civil–military cooperation and military mobility emerging as critical vulnerabilities. The authors propose concrete EU–NATO and Dutch recommendations to strengthen energy, transport and digital resilience, and argue that true deterrence now depends on treating resilience as a core strategic capability.
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Dag van Progress 2025 | Key Takeaways HCSS & Clingendael

28 Nov 2025
Op 13 november organiseerden The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies en The Clingendael Institute in samenwerking met het Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken en Ministerie van Defensie de jaarlijkse Dag van Progress. Het centrale thema van de dag stond in het teken Europese soevereiniteit in tijden van veranderende trans-Atlantische verhoudingen, en wat hierin de kansen en uitdagingen zijn voor Nederland en Europa. Samen met onderzoekers, beleidsmakers en strategische denkers verkenden we wat dit betekent voor Europa’s strategische autonomie, defensie-industrie en technologische weerbaarheid.
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European Military Fuel Readiness: The Role of Alternative Fuels in Military Logistics

26 Nov 2025
What does the energy transition in the military look like? The use of alternative fuels in the military brings challenges and opportunities, but while fossil fuels are slowly phased out, advanced and sustainable biofuels as well as synthetic fuels – are introduced. This report analyses the energy transition for military fuel readiness across the air, land and maritime domains as of 2025. Relating fuel properties and infrastructure to the operational needs of the military and providing 5 takeaways.
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HCSS Draghi Revisited Report Series | Expert Commentary

19 Nov 2025
One year after Mario Draghi’s landmark report, HCSS launches Draghi Revisited, the second edition of its Draghi Report Series. Despite rising political attention, Europe remains dependent in key defence, raw materials, cleantech and digital sectors, while global pressures intensify. Following the impact of their initial series, HCSS analysts Ron Stoop and Berend Kwak were invited to the European Commission’s conference marking the report's anniversary, and now return to assess how far Europe has advanced toward industrial, technological and economic sovereignty. This new edition revisits Draghi’s warnings sector by sector, reviewing the EU’s concrete steps over the past year.
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Propelling Green Ambitions: Policy Cycles and Priorities in China and the Netherlands

18 Nov 2025
How do China and the Netherlands translate their sustainability ambitions into policy and how can cooperation on the green transition be intensified? This new HCSS report compares the Dutch and Chinese approaches to green policymaking, revealing shared priorities across the domains of physical connectivity, environmental quality and human wellbeing, and resilience and adaptability. The study identifies how both countries can complement each other to accelerate the green transition, by focusing on pilot projects, knowledge exchange, and integrated spatial planning, among others.
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Annales des Mines | The current state of the European Union’s dependency and its policies

12 Nov 2025
In an article for Les Annales des Mines, HCSS strategic advisor Peter Handley examines how the EU’s efforts to reduce strategic dependencies — from energy to defence — have paradoxically coincided with rising import reliance. As China tightens export controls and the US races ahead with industrial policy, Handley argues that Europe must urgently shift from awareness to action to secure critical raw materials — and with them, its strategic autonomy.
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Securing Europe’s Clean Tech Future: Supporting Industry Stockpiles of Critical Raw Materials in the Netherlands

10 Nov 2025
From batteries to hydrogen: Europe’s clean tech future depends on secure, sustainable material supply. A new HCSS report explores how public-private collaboration on voluntary critical raw material stockpiles can strengthen the resilience and sustainability of the Dutch and European clean tech sectors. The study by Irina Patrahau and Ron Stoop proposes a four-step model and actionable recommendations for building voluntary stockpiles that support SMEs, promote ESG sourcing, and align with EU strategic autonomy goals.
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Attritable Precision Strike: Towards a Mass UAV Loitering Capacity for the Royal Netherlands Army

28 Oct 2025
New policy brief by HCSS senior fellow Friso Stevens: Europe’s next land war will be shaped by massed UAVs. The Royal Netherlands Army should build a resilient, AI-enabled loitering UAV capability and a domestic industrial base to scale rapidly in crisis. Read the policy options and concrete industrial steps for Dutch defence.
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Taiwan’s Role in the Strategic Reindustrialization of Europe

15 Oct 2025
On 15 September 2025, HCSS had the honour of hosting His Excellency the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Taiwan, for a closed-door luncheon. The discussion focused on “Taiwan’s Role in the Strategic Reindustrialization of Europe.” Conversations explored the geopolitical aspects of reindustrialization, the development of democratic and resilient supply chains, and opportunities for enhanced cooperation between Taiwan and the Netherlands within the ReArm Europe framework. The exchange offered valuable insights into the evolving role of Taiwan in Europe’s strategic landscape and highlighted the importance of strengthening partnerships among like-minded democracies.
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Old Players, New Moves: India's Strategy in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

14 Oct 2025
As global power dynamics shift toward multipolarity, India’s challenge lies not in adaptation, but in shaping the new order. A new HCSS Snapshot, Old Players, New Moves: India’s Strategy in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, explores how India can turn its SCO membership into strategic advantage. Authors Anna Hoefnagels and Benedetta Girardi assess whether the opportunities of SCO membership outweigh its challenges—and how India’s strategic moves today can shape the rules of tomorrow’s global game. The paper identifies three key pathways for India to strengthen its regional role and influence the emerging multipolar order.
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The Arctic Security Conference 2025: Managing Polarisation and Fragmentation

9 Oct 2025
In September, Strategic Analyst Fiona De Cuyper attended the 2025 Arctic Security Conference in Oslo, Norway. The event brought together a diverse group of global participants, including academics, government and business representatives, Indigenous peoples, and locals from northern communities. This year, the central theme of the conference was “Managing Polarisation and Fragmentation”, with sessions focused on great power competition in the High North, the relevance of Arctic cooperative institutions, the state of conflict in the region, the local aspect of security considerations, and the role of non-Arctic states. Fiona’s reflections and insights from the conference are presented below.
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Frozen Battlegrounds: The Strategic Cost of Transatlantic Competition Over Greenland's Critical Raw Materials

7 Oct 2025
Greenland’s critical raw materials are attracting global attention – but will the EU and US step up, or will China fill the void? Assistant analyst Julie Jeuken investigates EU and US bilateral engagements with Greenland, finding that both share similar goals yet fall short of Nuuk's expectations. The snapshot calls for a Greenland-centred approach to transatlantic cooperation: aligning efforts with the island’s ambitions, leveraging renewable energy in mining, and coordinating with countries already active in the sector.
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WPS Policy Brief | Addressing Water-related Security Challenges in Fragile Settings: Opportunities and Limitations for Defence and Security Actors

6 Oct 2025
The Water, Peace and Security (WPS) partnership explores the growing role of defence and security actors—the “fourth D” alongside development, disaster relief and diplomacy—in addressing water-related security risks. Based on literature review and expert interviews in Iraq, Mali, Ethiopia and Kenya, this new WPS policy brief by HCSS analysts Lennart Engel and Thijs van Aken examines their complex role in fragile, water-stressed contexts and identifies key opportunities, challenges, and three priority actions for more effective and responsible engagement.
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HCSS Publieksmonitor Maatschappelijke Stabiliteit: Hoofdlijnen Najaarspeiling 2025

30 Sep 2025
De Najaarspeiling van de HCSS Publieksmonitor laat zien dat maatschappelijke stabiliteit in Nederland broos blijft. Nederlanders beoordelen deze met een 6,1, lager dan in de zomer. Interne spanningen en zorgen over de werking van de democratie nemen toe, terwijl vertrouwen in de overheid laag blijft. Tegelijkertijd zien veel Nederlanders hun buurt als bron van veerkracht. Lees nu de belangrijkste bevindingen.
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Responsible by Design: Strategic Guidance Report on the Risks, Opportunities, and Governance of Artificial Intelligence in the Military Domain

24 Sep 2025
The responsible development and use of AI in the military domain requires informed human decisions and context-specific approaches to designing, testing, and deploying these technologies in ways that uphold values of peace and human dignity. With this report, GC REAIM proposes modalities for global cooperation to foster warranted trust in the responsible use of AI systems, paving the way towards the institutionalization of governance for AI in the military domain.
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The Socio-Political Instability Observer: July 2025

22 Sep 2025
The sixth edition of the ‘Observer’, analysing the results of the HCSS Socio-Political Instability Survey, continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe, caused by the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza. The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran followed by American airstrikes on the Fordow nuclear plant weakened the Ayatollah's reign, bringing Iran to the top of the list of countries most at risk of further socio-political instability. Consequentially, military factors are once again seen as the main driver of global socio-political instability, once again surpassing economic factors now the unease and uncertainty surrounding US trade has receded into the background.
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Making e-SAF land: Opportunities for the Netherlands in the Synthetic Aviation Fuel Sector

18 Sep 2025
What are the opportunities for Dutch industry in the global e-SAF supply chain? With EU climate targets driving demand for synthetic aviation fuels, the Netherlands can leverage its strong capabilities and international partnerships to secure sustainable solutions. The Netherlands is well-positioned with its technical expertise, energy hub role, and strong international ties—but high costs mean global partnerships are key. This new HCSS study highlights opportunities in Sweden, Spain, France, Canada, Morocco, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, and offers concrete recommendations for government and industry.
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Critical Raw Materials in the Dutch Provinces of Noord-Holland and Flevoland: Towards Resilient Supply Chains

11 Sep 2025
No EU country can be self-sufficient in critical raw materials. But regions like Noord-Holland & Flevoland can lead in recycling, innovation & circularity. This new HCSS report by Irina Patrahau, Lucia van Geuns, Ron Stoop, and Julie Jeuken highlights how regional actors—from ports to recycling companies—can strengthen Europe’s security of supply amid growing global competition for critical raw materials. It identifies vulnerabilities and outlines five key opportunities for building circular, sustainable CRM supply chains.
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Kritieke grondstoffen in Noord-Holland en Flevoland: Op weg naar veerkrachtige toeleveringsketens

11 Sep 2025
De energietransitie, digitale technologie en defensie zijn afhankelijk van kritieke grondstoffen (CRM). In een nieuw HCSS-rapport analyseren Irina Patrahau, Lucia van Geuns, Ron Stoop en Julie Jeuken hoe Noord-Holland en Flevoland hun rol kunnen versterken binnen mondiale CRM-toeleveringsketens. De studie schetst kwetsbaarheden, kansen en beleidsopties om de regio veerkrachtiger en duurzamer te maken.
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Blinded By Bias: Western Policymakers and Their Perceptions of Russia before 24 February 2022

9 Sep 2025
Why did so many Western governments fail to anticipate Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite all the warning signs? Based on 44 interviews and in-depth analysis, this groundbreaking new HCSS report by Tim Sweijs, Thijs van Aken, Julie Ebrard, Philippe van Pappelendam and Anna Hoefnagels reveals how psychological and cognitive biases distorted policymakers’ threat perception — with far-reaching consequences.
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HCSS Focus | Autocratisch Sentiment

2 Sep 2025
Bijna de helft van de Nederlanders ziet in crisistijden meer in een sterke leider dan in een compromisgerichte regering. Deze HCSS Focus onderzoekt de voedingsbodems van autocratisch sentiment: frustratie over democratie, wantrouwen in instituties, angst en onzekerheid, en hang naar homogeniteit. Op basis van peilingen met KiesKompas en de HCSS Publieksmonitor biedt dit rapport inzicht in risico’s voor democratische weerbaarheid in Nederland.
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Van Meme Tot Moord | Hoe online extremistische broedkamers een nieuwe generatie van geweld kweken

24 Aug 2025
HCSS waarschuwt in het nieuwe rapport Van Meme Tot Moord: online extremistische subculturen kweken een nieuwe generatie van geweld. Jongeren raken verstrikt in digitale biotopen vol haat, geweld en antidemocratische denkbeelden. Analisten Gerben Bakker en Thijs van Aken beschrijven hoe memes, games en hybride ideologieën samensmelten tot een gevaarlijke voedingsbodem voor radicalisering – en wat we eraan kunnen doen.
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