The nexus between natural resources and security needs to be better understood and more closely monitored. Climate change exacerbates environmental challenges and natural resources scarcity which are contributing factors to the onset of political violence both within and between states. A more granular grasp of the dynamics involved in these risk multipliers through the use of integrated datasets will allow for enhanced situational awareness and enable timely action. It requires concerted action and closer coordination by vital political, military, diplomatic and societal stakeholders from the public and private sector across the globe. This Issue Brief summarizes the key takeaways of a meeting of a Global Expert Group that convened at the Future Force Conference held in The Hague, the Netherlands, in February 2017. The Brief highlights the contributions by principal experts from the panel and the audience and outlines ten recommendations for future action.

Authors: Yulia Aleshchenkova, Alberto Pallecchi, Kitty van der Heijden, Tim Sweijs

Download the Issue Brief via the button on the right. 

At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C.

As part of our Geo-Economics research initiative, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has investigated the geopolitical consequences of climate mitigation and energy transition among a number of countries richly endowed in hydrocarbons who potentially stand to lose a significant part of their revenue stream as a result of demand changes for fossil fuels. If demand for oil and gas demand were to decrease as a result of successful climate mitigation policies, the financial and social stability of these countries will – ceteris paribus – be negatively affected, especially if they fail to reform their domestic economies.

The presented study, entitled The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies, employs a number of innovative investigative methods and analytical approaches to generate insights regarding sociopolitical stability in the wake of the world’s transition to renewable energy systems in a number of major oil- and gas-exporting nations near Europe. On top of this, the report looks closely at the energy situation in Sub-Saharan Africa and analyzes in detail which choices developing nations face with respect to their future energy mix.

Given the deep, and complex relationship between the global energy sector and international politics, these findings have numerous implications – both short and long term – for our future efforts to combat climate change while simultaneously fending off any consequential drivers of sociopolitical instability.

Download the study via the button on the right.

Op 20 februari hebben het Den Haag Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) en Instituut Clingendael hun Monitors gepresenteerd. Beide instituten brengen sinds 2012 jaarlijks hun monitor uit als onderdeel van de Strategische Monitor van de Nederlandse overheid. Bert Koenders, minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, nam de studies namens het kabinet in ontvangst.

Rob de Wijk sprak hierover met het NCTV magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing: “De grote uitdagingen zijn een goed moment om ons te bezinnen over de wijze waarop wij invulling willen geven aan het veiligheidsbeleid van Nederland, te meer omdat het kabinet uitgaat van comprehensive security."

Het volledige artikel kunt u rechts downloaden en werd gepubliceerd in het Magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing.

De HCSS Strategische Monitor vindt u hier.

In mei 2015 kondigde de minister van Veiligheid en Justitie aan dat de Strategie Nationale Veiligheid (SNV) wordt herijkt.Er werd gekozen voor een nieuwe aanpak waarvan het nieuwe Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel een belangrijk zichtbaar resultaat is. Dit veiligheidsprofiel is inderdaad een breuk met het verleden en vormt een nieuwe start voor de verdere ontwikkeling van de SNV.

Rob de Wijk schreef hier een artikel over voor het Magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing. 

U kunt het volledige artikel rechts downloaden.

During the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw of 8-9 July 2016, NATO declared that its essential mission is unchanged. It was also stated that NATO will ensure that it has the full range of capabilities necessary to deter and defend against potential adversaries and the full spectrum of threats that could confront the Alliance from any direction.

Cyberattacks present a clear challenge to the security of the Alliance and could be as harmful to modern societies as a conventional attack. For that reason, the Member States agreed in Warsaw that cyber defense is part of NATO's core task of collective defense and NATO's defensive mandate, and that cyberspace is recognized as a separate domain of operations in which NATO must defend itself as effectively as it does in the air, on land, and at sea. Furthermore, it will ensure more effective organization of NATO's cyber defense and better management of resources, skills, and capabilities.

HCSS conducted research on both the concept of Cyberspace as a Domain for NATO and on the question whether the existing NATO cyberspace capabilities cover the whole spectrum of those required as a result of recognizing  cyberspace as a domain of operations.

The research results are available at HCSS. The report is not available for the public.

There are all kinds of new applications in development today that make increasingly smarter use of Big Data. Take for example the recent announcements that judicial decisions can be predicted by computers. In the security domain there are numerous possibilities to use these technologies too. At the same time the security domain bears the risk of exclusion and inducing mistrust among the civilian population regarding the limitless use of personal data. This report outlines how to develop technologies responsibly for this challenging domain.

Big Data is the next great opportunity for security organizations and individuals alike. The idea is to feed a computer with large amounts of data in order to perform faster and more accurate analyses and create a real-time, situational understanding of security situations. At this point however, the technological developments remain in a state of flux.

The authors hope to inspire the reader and increase awareness as well as provide insights into how to develop responsible Big Data applications for security.

This report provides a description of technological developments and explains how these developments can be used to support more responsible, effective and efficient security.

Three of the most prevailing observations are:

1. Big Data and High Performance Computing have a very large set of multifaceted capabilities to contribute to security.
2. For the acceptance of the applications, society, public organizations and the corporate business world should establish a framework on the eligibility of these developments.
3. Decisions affecting humanity are increasingly being taken by computers, which raises tremendous responsibility regarding the correctness and ethical values represented in Artificial Intelligence.

The observations evoke, among others, the following five questions that will be addressed in this report:

• What are computers able to do with Big Data?
• What do we ask from the computers?
• What is desirable to ask from the computers?
• What happens in practice at this moment?
• What should be the Call for Action?

Powerpoint presentation

The report can be downloaded using the button on the right.

De inzet van desinformatie en nepnieuws van Russische zijde is aan de orde van de dag. Afgelopen jaar intervenieerde Rusland in de Amerikaanse presidentiële verkiezingscampagne om de kandidatuur van Hillary Clinton te verzwakken. Begin dit jaar verspreidden Russische trollen valse berichten over de seksuele geaardheid van de Franse presidentskandidaat Emmanuel Macron. Ook Nederland is niet gevrijwaard van Russische propaganda activiteiten, zoals omtrent de bevindingen van de Onderzoeksraad voor de Veiligheid over het neerschieten van vlucht MH17.  Deze activiteiten ondermijnen de democratische rechtsorde en het vertrouwen van burgers in haar instituties en waarden. In deze issue brief schetsen wij de omvang van deze activiteiten en doen zeven aanbevelingen voor wat de Nederlandse samenleving kan doen om zich hier beter tegen te beschermen.

Lees de Issue Brief

Auteurs: Michel Rademaker (HCSS), Tim Sweijs (HCSS), Joris Voorhoeve (Hoogleraar Internationale Organisaties, Universiteit Leiden). 

Digitalization has taken a predominant role in the Netherlands. The Netherlands considers itself one of the leading ICT countries, promotes itself as ‘a safe place to do business’ and aspires to be the digital gateway of Europe. This report will first estimate the current and prospective size of the Dutch digital economy and the ICT sector, and later analyze how much the latter contributes to the national economy. Next, we provide a holistic overview of the current level of public and private investments in cybersecurity, followed by an analysis estimating the Dutch cybersecurity market by comparing different studies.

Taking into account the 1,5% loss of its national GDP to cybercrime, which correlates well to the €10bn value loss through cyber risk in the Netherlands, the Dutch private sector, and especially the government, can invest more in cybersecurity to reduce the impact and damage cybercrime and –risks. In addition, there is a drastic increase in demand anticipated for cybersecurity experts and IoT developers. As a result, when this is solved, one might conclude that the investments in cybersecurity will exceed the 10% norm.

This research is directed to the National Cyber Testbed Initiative of The Hague Security Delta (December 2016).

The report can be downloaded using the button on the right.

Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence.

The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation.

The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included. 

Download the report via the button on the right. 

Press release

Speech Minister Koenders (NL)

You can also download the separate chapters:

Conflict and Cooperation

Nowcasting Geodynamics, Great Powers and Pivoting

Case study: A farewell to the West? Turkey's Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup

Case study: A national identity crisis? Moldova in Flux between East and West

The many faces of Political Violence 

The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability 

The other side of the Security Coin

Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of paths lay ahead of a possible Turkish “pivot” away from the West? What does this mean for the West’s strategic interests in the region? 

Authored by Dr. Barin Kayaoğlu of the American University of Iraq, this year’s study entitled “A Farewell to the West? Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt” explores the conditions that could lead Turkey to change its foreign policy direction in the near future, exploring four distinctive possibilities that could all have important implications for Europe, and the wider world.

This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

HCSS has tracked overall trends in global cooperation and conflict as part of its contribution to the Strategic Monitor of the Dutch government. Our study takes into consideration two overarching questions: “Will state or non-state actors be most dominant in the future world?” and “Will whoever becomes most dominant be more cooperative, or more conflictual?”

Our approach to this ‘monitoring’ effort aspires to collate and curate a systematic empirical evidence base that allows all relevant stakeholders – analysts, military planners, policy-makers, but also interested companies, NGOs, citizens, etc. – to get a better grip on these fundamental international trends. With the advent of (open-source) event datasets, this has become more possible than ever. 

This year we updated our findings using data from three different sources and have uncovered a number of different trends. How can we leverage big data to inform policymakers on complex geopolitical trends in our new uncertain era? What are the world’s most cooperative countries? Where in the world can we find the highest concentrations of conflictual behavior? What is the Netherlands’ position in the ebb and flow of international communications? 

This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. 

We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. 

This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future.

This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon. 

Corruption and the perceived partiality of the justice system and state administration of Moldova have long frustrated efforts – both internal and external – to improve its domestic politics. It nevertheless remains an important partner for both the European Union and Russia, however its strategic positioning between these two powers have left its citizens stretched at times, even torn, in terms of national identity. 

Looking into recent domestic developments as well as the EU and Russia’s strategies towards Moldova in recent years, this study gives a brief overview of the European and Russian stakes held in Moldova and how its recent presidential election may change Moldova’s future geostrategic positioning. 

This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

The modern era’s Great Power Peace has come under severe strain in recent years. The seams of the western-based world political order have stretched to the point of breaking, with non-state actors rising in response to exploit the global climate of paralysis and uncertainty. Indeed, violence levels are at historically high levels that haven’t been seen since 2004. But what does the violence waged on Europe’s borders mean for European citizens and their leaders? 

HCSS has analyzed trends in political violence using various open-data sources and provides a forecast of civil war onset risk for the year 2017 using in-house forecasting models based on rich quantitative datasets and complex theoretical frameworks. 

This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it originate from? How has it been able to establish itself so quickly? Can it actually persist? Can it be defeated? 

The aim of this year’s study, entitled “The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability”, is to understand the organization, its motivations, its inherent weaknesses, as well as its ability to endure. A broader aim is to set out how it could develop as it comes under ever more pressure by regional powers and, in the case of its defeat, how to prevent the arrival of the next ISIS. 

A key message of this chapter is that ISIS is a ‘child of its time’ and is not destined to persist. Its professed millenarian or eschatological bent is meant to cast the conflict between the Caliphate and the rest of the word as a cosmic battle, but in reality is largely of instrumental value. Also, while its rise could have been prevented, its fall looks all but inevitable, even if it remains unclear what will replace it.

This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.