Report

Strategic Monitor 2019-2020 - The Writing on the Wall

January 28th 2020 - 08:27

Read our Strategic Monitor 2019-2020 now! Click here to download the PDF

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence have tasked The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor, which monitors trends and developments in the international order and presents a risk analysis on the national security of the Netherlands.

The yearly report was presented today to the Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs, Stef Blok. 

The Strategic Monitor 2019-2020 consists of the summary report “Between Order & Chaos: The Writing on the Wall”, and ten individual research papers. The executive summary of the report is available in English and Dutch. The individual research papers are available in English. 

The title of this year’s report “The Writing on the Wall” is a reference to the warning of impending disaster in the biblical tale of Belshazzar, King of Babylon, described in the book of Daniel. In it, Daniel reads the writing on the wall as a warning to Belshazzar that his days as king were numbered. Sudden, structural change such as the end of Belshazzar’s kingdom is emblematic of discontinuity, a central feature of today’s world. Power is shifting, technological progress is accelerating, rules are changing. The Strategic Monitor seeks to decipher the writing on the wall, describe the key trends as they unfold, and understand how they shape our future.

Please find an overview of the Strategic Monitor 2019-2020 research papers below:

The reports can also be accessed through the website of the Clingendael Institute

Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. He is the initiator, creator and author of numerous studies, methodologies, and tools for horizon scanning, early warning, conflict analysis, national security risk assessment, and strategy and capability development. Tim has lectured at universities and military academies around the world. His main research interest concerns the changing character of contemporary conflict. Tim is a Senior Research Fellow at the Netherlands Defence Academy and an Affiliate at the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.