Research
Note: The Climate Security Assessment is currently under review; a new version will be uploaded shortly.
Climate Change is widely being recognized as a matter of national and international security as well as human security. Climate-related disasters such as floods, tropical storms, landslides and other extreme weather events are likely to occur more often as well as increase in scope. Natural hazards can and will pose substantial risks to overall human suffering, societal stability and security. This report by Femke Remmits, Elisabeth Dick and HCSS Deputy Director Michel Rademaker presents a unique and innovative methodology for assessing climate hazards and security of nations and regions: the Climate Security Risk Index.
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier by triggering or aggravating existing cleavages within societies. More specifically, when climate change overburdens a countries’ governmental capacity, societies become more vulnerable to social or political instability.
The Climate Security Risk Index focuses on the risks to national security and human suffering generated by climate-related disasters and comprises of elements such as territorial integrity, ecological security, economic security, physical security, human security and social and political stability. This unique methodology supports the combination of multiple indicators and plots both the probability of a climate-related disaster to occur and the potential impact of said natural hazard.
Using this new risk assessment tool, decision-makers on the global, national and regional level can identify specific targets to prevent, mitigate and/or avert the security impact and human suffering of climate-related extreme weather events. Additionally, this methodology can be utilized for tracking the progress and effectiveness of disaster-risk reduction measures or strategies.
This Climate Security Risk Methodology and Assessment was coordinated with the International Military Committee on Climate and Security, sponsored by HCSS and co-sponsored by the Luxembourg Government, and shouldered by the Water, Peace & Security (WPS) partnership and Progress WP6.
HCSS strives to constantly enhance the quality of the methodology and it’s components. This August 2021 version has some new and more complete datasources which enabled us to have broader coverage and quality of the assessd countries. As a consequence, some of the risk scores have changed.
“Climate Change is widely being recognized as also a matter of national and international security. The COVID-crisis shows us the importance of being prepared and of being able to anticipate. Militaries around the world have learned the importance of early warning based on clear defined warners and indicators. They also learned what the consequences are of NOT being prepared. There currently is no adequate forecasting tool for assessing the security impact of climate change. This Climate Security Risk Methodology and Assessment fills that gap and provides a unique forecasting tool based on a very innovative big data analysis of related global databases.” – Tom Middendorp
“Climate change is a threat multiplier disrupting society and threatening global security and stability. To combat the climate crisis and begin to “climate-proof” our societies, we need predictive tools that allow us to reliably assess risk and make responsible decisions based on well understood warnings and indicators. This important Climate Security Risk Methodology Report does just that. It allows readers to assess the specific climate perils – wildfire, drought, flooding, etc – in the context of probability and impact on countries and regions. This tool should be an essential component of national security planners in forecasting levels of risk from climate perils and acting today to build resilience and reduce emissions.“ – Sherri Goodman, Secretary General, International Military Council on Climate & Security and Senior Strategist and Advisory Board Member, Center for Climate & Security
