Intrastate Conflict and Drivers of Vulnerability Monitor

October 23rd 2014 - 12:00

Intrastate Conflict and Drivers of Vulnerability Monitor
HCSS is proud to present the Drivers of Vulnerability (DoV) Monitor, a 21st century tool to explore our 21st century security environment. The DoV Monitor contains over 50 drivers of state vulnerability to intrastate conflict for around 200 countries from over twenty years. It combines the expertise of decades of conflict research with a data driven approach, presented in one interactive interface. Click on the map below to access the monitor.


DOV monitor 













Conflict Prevention starts with Anticipation
Intrastate conflict comes in different forms: from revolutions and wide-scale societal conflict, to full-blown civil war and genocide. The humanitarian, economic, social and political consequences of such conflicts can be severe. The implosion of Syria and Libya, and the ongoing turbulence in Somalia and Mali have thrown the spotlight back onto the devastating potential of civil war. The importance of anticipation, prevention and mitigation is clearly paramount.

The drivers of these different incarnations of intrastate conflict are complex rather than simple, and predicting the outbreak of political instability has often proven difficult. What is clear, however, is that some states are more vulnerable to the onset of intrastate conflict than others, due to an intricate mixture of security, economic, social, political and geographic drivers.

The DoV Monitor is set up to allow end users to explore the vulnerability of states from a multitude of angles. It can display data on a global and a regional level, allowing users to assess both general trends and patterns of vulnerability in specific regions or countries over time. It also provides summaries of the existing academic literature on the drivers of vulnerability. End users can create their own composite indices and export maps and graphs to be used in presentations and reports. This makes it a powerful research tool, enabling policymakers & pundits, scholars & students, and everyone else taking a keen interest in their security environment to explore the intricacies of intrastate conflict.

It is our firm hope that providing access to this data in such an interface will open up possibilities for future risk analysis and conflict prevention and thereby contribute to a more peaceful world.

Would you like to know more? Please access the DoV Monitor or contact

Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. He is the initiator, creator and author of numerous studies, methodologies, and tools for horizon scanning, early warning, conflict analysis, national security risk assessment, and strategy and capability development. Tim has lectured at universities and military academies around the world. His main research interest concerns the changing character of contemporary conflict. Tim is a Senior Research Fellow at the Netherlands Defence Academy and an Affiliate at the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.