HCSS Snapshot - Trade implications of the Iran nuclear deal and the US’ withdrawal

June 4th 2018 - 14:00
A photo of Tehran buildings with mountains in the background

There is plenty of analysis on the security implications of the US’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Much less has been said about the trade implications of the US’ withdrawal. Since the main instrument used in the Iran nuclear deal was sanction relief, we can evaluate the effects of lifting the sanctions by analyzing changes in Iranian trade since 2015. This in turn helps in better understanding the economic considerations of individual countries as they respond to the US' withdrawal from the agreement. While there have been broader structural changes to the world economy since 2015, trade data still offers insight into the economic implications, especially since the price of oil has remained relatively stable between 2015 and 2017 (and makes up a significant share of Iranian trade). Our analysis of the data indicates that the European Union and the Republic of Korea stand to lose, whilst China stands to gain from the collapse of the nuclear deal.

Please find the Snapshot here.

Authors: Paul Verhagen & Lucie Kattenbroek

Paul Verhagen is a data analyst at HCSS, and holds a Master’s degree in Environment and Resource Management from the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. He obtained his Bachelor’s degree at Amsterdam University College majoring in theoretical physics and philosophy. Paul has attended exchange programs in Beijing, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Prior to joining HCSS, Paul interned at the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs where he worked on global cyber capacity.