The developed world will be facing growing health challenges in the near future. Today’s ongoing trends such as the obesity epidemic, the growing prevalence of certain chronic diseases and increasing financial pressures on our health-care systems are as many symptoms of a need to change the way we look at and take care of our health.

One central element on this pathway to change is the concept of prevention. This Issue Brief looks at the extent to which it can contribute to our health and health-care systems, at the role of institutional, behavioral and technological innovations in supporting this approach, and at the costs and benefits it entails.

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Organized crime for the European market is a multi-billion dollar business that feeds on, as well as sustains, poverty and poor governmental control. As factors like the economic crisis and the emergence and growth of urban slums will sustain organized crime, this threat is likely to stay with us in the foreseeable future. Against this background, the HCSS report Detecting Elusive Criminals answers the following question: what research strands need to be explored further in order to find solutions for the threat posed to Europe by transnational organized crime?

The flexibility of criminal networks is remarkable, as they seem to think nothing of moving operations to other countries, entering into new partnerships and using other modes of transportation. Also, they are often quick to pick up on new technologies that help them run their businesses. The consequent lack of signature and standard operating procedures on the part of criminal networks means that they are increasingly difficult to detect.

Therefore, we suggest a series of research strands that are more preventive in nature. The detection of criminal networks should be applied to the preventive and early warning phase: we should development frameworks and vulnerability assessment tools to predict or estimate whether a certain area – a neighborhood, a city, a region – will in the near future have to deal with criminal networks. Other important research topics include the exploration of legal possibilities needed to exchange the information needed for these forms criminal detection, and the development of ways to involve the population in the gathering of information.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) is very pleased to present the latest study Shades of Graying.The study looks at how research can meet aging-related challenges for Europe. It also includes a GeoRisQ Monitor, which shows the rate at which countries are aging, and detailed projections on the impact of graying on public expenditure.

This report is part of the Grand Challenges project, in which HCSS identifies areas for research and development that can help to address Europe’s most pressing societal challenges.

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Which minerals are critical for the transition to renewable energy? How will future energy and mineral demand develop? And what will be the implications for international relations?

This paper focuses on the geopolitics of minerals for renewable energy technologies. Motivated by concerns about climate change, depletion of fossil fuel reserves, economic competitiveness and innovation, governments around the world have set ambitious targets for renewable energy. This has increased the demand for certain minerals. At the same time, the international system is in transition to a multipolar world and state capitalist tendencies are becoming more prominent. This paper looks at the how both import dependent and mineral producing countries are responding to these developments and what the implications are for the balance of cooperation and conflict.

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De Nederlandse gezondheidszorg behoort tot de wereldtop. Dat mag ook wel voor een slordige 87 miljard euro per jaar zou je zeggen. De zorg is daarbij een complexe sector. Waar circa 1,2 miljoen mensen werken, waar ‘high tech’ van uiterst geavanceerde apparatuur de ‘low tech’ ontmoet van een luisterend oor en het helpen met aankleden. Complex ook door het ingewikkelde stelsel en voortdurend veranderende (financiële) regelgeving; en bovendien door de snelle veranderingen in medische technologie.

Niet verwonderlijk dat er bij dit intense ‘hakwerk’ af en toe spaanders vallen, zoals bijna dagelijks in de media duidelijk wordt. Klachten over verzekeraars, medische missers, ruziënde specialisten, jongeren met gedragsstoornissen in de isoleer, fraude met het persoonsgebonden budget, ziekenhuizen in financiële nood, enzovoort. Al blijven patiënten en gebruikers in het algemeen lovend over de Nederlandse gezondheidszorg, duidelijk is dat kwaliteit en kwaliteitsverbetering centrale thema’s zijn in de zorg. Want een goede gezondheid en zorg vindt iedereen belangrijk.

Het rapport Innoveren voor Gezondheid is hiernaast te downloaden.

This report evaluates the links between coltan trade and violence in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and examines the potential for recent legislation to break such links and reduce conflict.

Due to effective NGO campaigns, such as “No blood on my mobile” coltan became the most visible symbol of the link between the deadly conflict in the DRC and the exploitation of mineral resources. The report concludes that the importance of coltan as a source of revenue for armed groups is often exaggerated. With an exception of a short-lived coltan boom in 2000-2001, it was never the substantial source of funding for armed groups. Although armed groups have profited from Congo’s mineral wealth, coltan was not the main instigator of the conflict in the DRC and was at most a contributing factor. Many policy initiatives aimed at breaking the link between mining, mineral trade, and conflict, including Section 1502 of the Dodd-Frank Act in the U.S., suffer from problems related to both effectiveness and efficiency. Ending the violence requires a long-term and comprehensive approach that combines military, political and economic efforts, with a particular emphasis on building capable and legitimate institutions, restoring the state’s monopoly on violence and promoting economic development that is not based on illegal activities.

This HCSS report has been produced in collaboration with the Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), Raw Materials Group (RMG), and Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), as part of the wider POLINARES project. POLINARES aims to explore the future challenges facing access to fossil fuels and mineral resources, and is funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.

Download the pressrelease here.

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Doel van dit onderzoek was het inzichtelijk maken van de complexiteit van jihadistisch geïnspireerde terroristische (verijdelde) aanslagen, karakteristieken van daders die achter de aanslagen zitten en de relatie tussen complexiteit en daderkarakteristieken. Ook heeft dit onderzoek tot doel het in kaart brengen van veranderingen die zich in de complexiteit van aanslagen, in daderkarakteristieken en de relatie daartussen hebben voorgedaan.

Het hele rapport is als PDF te downloaden.
 

The Royal Netherlands Air Force should invest in a mix of weapons systems to facilitate joint operations. Observation and prolonged surveillance is becoming an important task. Strategic cooperation with R&D institutes and the aerospace industry is crucial.

The importance of air power lies in creating conditions for successful performance of sea, land, and air forces. Observation and prolonged surveillance will become a main task of the Air Force. Rapid technological developments in the use of unmanned systems and space resources are making this increasingly feasible and affordable.

By scrapping tanks, lots of artillery, and anti-tank weapons from the inventory, the Dutch armed forces have lost lot of combat power. The Air Force must, therefore, increasingly support operations on land and at sea with a mix of fighter aircraft and helicopter gunships, possibly supplementing that mix with offensive unmanned systems in the future. This role requires explicitly reinforcing the concept of joint operations.

Today's dynamic security environment requires constant adaptation and innovation. The Commander of the Royal Netherlands Air Force is responsible for the build-up and use of expertise of all flying systems within the armed forces. This requires close cooperation with the aerospace industry and research institutes. The Ministry of Defence has an important role on the front and back of the innovation process, accordingly, as innovation leader and lead customer. Cooperation with the industrial aerospace cluster is important to strengthen the Dutch economy.

These and other building blocks for the future Air Force are contained in the report Airpower in the Netherlands, a vision of the future 2015-2025. This report was prepared by the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), commissioned by the Royal Netherlands Air Force.

Download “Toekomstvisie Luchtwapen 2015-2025”: Dutch version here.

This report explores how the Dutch government could strengthen the resilience of the Dutch agro-food system and mitigate risks to the supply of critical raw material imports.

Interdependencies in the field of food, agriculture and raw materials are growing. Global population growth, rising prosperity and changing consumption patterns in emerging economies have increased the demand for all three. Geopolitical trends shape global markets for food, agriculture, and raw materials and carry consequences for the Dutch agro-food sector. In the Netherlands, food insecurity is not an imminent risk. Nonetheless, geopolitical risks are real and scenarios under which the Dutch agro-food sector has difficulty in adequately sourcing critical raw material imports should not be neglected. This report explores how the Dutch government could strengthen the resilience of the Dutch agro-food system and mitigate risks to the supply of critical raw material imports.

The Dutch government wants to take care of the interests of Dutch consumers and producers of agro-food products while simultaneously support a safe and stable world characterized by fair international relationships. Therefore, the government should find ways that mitigate supply risks that go beyond simply achieving the largest supply security at the lowest cost. This report argues that the Netherlands should avoid to shift the burden of securing the interests of the Dutch agro-food sector on to developing countries by focusing on cooperative solutions aimed at creating long-term win-win situations that benefit both the Netherlands and sourcing countries. From this perspective, in which reciprocity is key, the report formulates several policy recommendations for a strategic response to the emerging geopolitics of food.

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Het belang van het luchtwapen ligt in het scheppen van de voorwaarden voor succesvol optreden van zee-, land- en luchtstrijdkrachten. Waarneming en langdurige observatie wordt een hoofdtaak van de luchtmacht. Snelle technologische ontwikkelingen maken het gebruik van onbemande systemen en ruimtemiddelen hierbij steeds beter mogelijk én betaalbaar.

Door het schrappen van tanks, artillerie en antitankwapens levert de Nederlandse krijgsmacht veel slagkracht in. De luchtmacht kan het optreden op de grond en op zee steunen met een mix van jachtvliegtuigen en bewapende helikopters, in de toekomst wellicht aan te vullen met offensief in te zetten onbemande systemen. Deze rol vraagt nadrukkelijk om versterking van het gezamenlijk optreden.

De huidige dynamische veiligheidsomgeving vraagt om voortdurende aanpassing en vernieuwing. De Commandant Luchtstrijdkrachten is verantwoordelijk voor de opbouw en het gebruik van kennis van alle vliegende systemen binnen de krijgsmacht. Dit vereist nauwe samenwerking met de industrie en kennisinstituten. Defensie heeft daarbij een belangrijke rol aan de voor- en de achterkant van het innovatieproces, respectievelijk als innovation leader en lead customer. Samenwerking in het lucht- en ruimtevaartcluster is belangrijk voor de versterking van de Nederlandse kenniseconomie.

Deze en andere bouwstenen voor de toekomstige luchtmacht zijn neergelegd in het rapport ‘Toekomstvisie Luchtwapen 2015-2025’. Dit rapport is opgesteld door het Den Haag Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS), in opdracht van de Koninklijke Luchtmacht.

Europeans have never been healthier than they are today. Yet although European countries have experienced a continuous improvement of their overall health situation, our increasing wealth has paradoxically become a driving force of new health problems. Aging and unhealthy lifestyles are leading to new health risks. From an increase in incidence in some non-communicable diseases, to neurodegenerative and mental disorders, we are increasingly faced with new types of ‘maladies of prosperity’. Combined with rising health expectations and technological progress, they also threaten the financial sustainability of our health-care systems. If left unaddressed, these trends are likely to evolve into the health crises of tomorrow. To tackle these challenges, the report argues for increasing research on costly diseases, personalization of treatments, targeted and cost-reducing innovations, health inequalities and sustainability of health-care systems.

Our report is complemented by a GeoRisQ Monitor, which assesses the health challenges affecting European countries. It does so by taking a closer look at how these countries fare with respect to three risk factors: (i) Unhealthy Lifestyles; (ii) Aging; and, (iii) Environmental Degradation. The Monitor can be accessed by clicking here.

Deze verkenning vertrekt vanuit trends en ontwikkelingen in de wereld en kijkt vervolgens naar de consequenties voor Europa en Nederland. Dit ‘van buiten naar binnen’ perspectief contrasteert met veel andere analyses die doorgaans vertrekken vanuit de kansen voor bio-based processen en producten en vooral ingaan op de 'gewenste' maatschappelijke context.

Gekeken is enerzijds naar globale maatschappelijke trends en anderzijds naar specifieke sleutelactiviteiten binnen het Nederlandse innovatiesysteem. De verkenning gaat met deze benadering niet alleen in op de mondiale en Europese context, maar analyseert ook op systematische wijze de sterkten en zwakten binnen het Nederlandse innovatiesysteem.

De trendanalyse laat zien dat een groot aantal trends en ontwikkelingen direct of indirect de ontwikkeling van de bio-based economie beïnvloedt.

Een belangrijk deel van die trends is de komende jaren robuust: de groei van de wereldbevolking, een wereldwijde toename van de vraag naar grondstoffen, energie, voedsel en water, toenemende aandacht voor grondstofefficiëntie, recycling van reststromen en materiaalketenbeheer bij bedrijven, stijgend milieubewustzijn van consumenten. Deze robuuste trends bieden duidelijke kansen voor de ontwikkeling van een economie gebaseerd op vernieuwbare grondstoffen. Maar zonder aanvullende prikkels zijn deze trends onvoldoende krachtig om de bio-based economie aan te kunnen jagen en breed te kunnen uitrollen.

This is an update from the report Risks and Opportunities in the Global Phosphate Rock Market. Please see figure 8 for updated data on the main sources of EU imports of phosphate rock.

The European Union (EU) is almost entirely dependent on imports of phosphate rock from the rest of the world. Trends and developments on the global phosphate rock market are putting the EU’s security of supply of phosphate rock under increasing pressure.

This report aims to increase awareness that import reliance makes Europe vulnerable to disruptions in the supply of this important commodity. It means that European food security and the agricultural sector, for which phosphate is an essential resource, are at risk. This report formulates robust strategies for the EU to adequately deal with developments on the global phosphate rock market.

To download the report, please click on the right button ''download the report''.

The study From Farm to Fork and Further shows how, as traditional causes of food safety problems such as basic hygiene are successfully dealt with, future food safety risks become ever harder to manage. European countries may have the highest food safety standards, however the trends that go hand in hand with rising wealth also lead to new risks, which emerge principally due to three trends: changing consumptions patterns; increasing complexity of food chains; and rapid developments in food innovation. As a result, new food safety risks arise, especially in relation to zoonotic diseases, antibiotic resistance, chemical hazards and allergies. If we do not address these risks, they are likely to evolve into the food safety crises of tomorrow. Our report suggests several areas for R&D to help us face these challenges.

You can download the full report on the right.

Stephan de Spiegeleire en Tim Sweijs publiceerden het artikel Contouren van Conflict in de 21-ste Eeuw: Oriëntatie op een Ongewisse Toekomst in de Militaire Spectator, Jaargang 181, Nummer 11 - 2012. Dit artikel is gebaseerd op de studie van Stephan de Spiegeleire, Tim Sweijs en Tong Zhao, Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century (Den Haag: HCSS, 2011).

De auteurs, Tim Sweijs en Stephan de Spiegeleire, blikken in het artikel op de verschillende toekomst verkenningen die door defensieplanners worden gebruikt. Als tegenwicht tegen de vaak gebruikte 'harde modellen' wordt de Metafore methode toegepast op Chinees-, Engels- en Russischtalige studies om een beeld te presenteren over conflicten in de 21-ste eeuw.

Vanwege slechte ervaringen uit het verleden vertrouwen defensieplanners steeds minder op ‘harde modellen’ of technologische roadmaps om te voorspellen hoe conflicten er over tien, twintig jaar uit zullen zien. Een nieuwe benadering van toekomstverkenningen is in opmars. Metafore is hier een voorbeeld van. Metafore heeft niet de pretentie een eenduidige, alomvattende visie te geven op hoe de toekomst eruit zal zien, maar brengt verschillende toekomstperspectieven in kaart – ook tegenstrijdige. Metafore biedt zo een noodzakelijk tegenwicht tegen eenzijdige, etnocentrische en vaak deterministische voorspellingen die het huidige debat over veiligheid domineren. De auteurs hebben deze methode toegepast op Chinees-, Engels- en Russischtalige studies. Duidelijk is dat de spelregels van toekomstige conflicten zullen worden herschreven en dat defensieorganisaties zich zullen moeten aanpassen.