Since the Arab Spring, conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has rapidly intensified. The drivers of these conflicts are still present and could spark future violence. This report looks at the vulnerability of MENA states to future conflict, and how this may impact Europe. We look at the four types of vulnerability:

• Political turmoil is a primary driver of conflict in countries confronted with regime changes, or with regimes facing existential threats. Such states are less apt at mitigating turmoil, and fragile institutions create an incentive for people and groups to try and shape the political context.
• The Arab Spring has amplified economic and social problems in many countries, especially in states already severely affected by the upheavals. In richer Gulf countries, food and water scarcity are predominantly economic concerns that governments can buy-off by subsidizing consumption, by importing water and food, or by investing in desalination and irrigation.
• Fuel export dependent countries that rely on oil and gas revenues to fill state coffers are more vulnerable to a decline in oil price, particularly when they have limited financial buffers.
• Religious and ethnic tensions may erupt due to people looking for a state, or sizeable ethnic and/or religious groups vying for state control.

A second part of the study looks at how conflict could spill-over to Europe, affecting the security and economic interests of states on the continent. Specifically, it looks at large scale refugee inflows, illegal immigration, and human trafficking; European jihadi fighters coming home; oil price spikes and disruption of import flows; and (non)-fuel trade flows and poor return on investment.

You can download the study with the button on the right.

This study is part of the Strategic Monitor 2014, an innovative new report by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) that draws on in-depth research and cutting-edge analytical tools to explore some key trends and challenges to our global security environment. The report consists of four studies focusing on the following themes:

• Great power assertiveness;
• The role of pivot states in regional and global security;
• Vulnerable states in the Middle East and North Africa;
• The growing role of non-state actors in security affairs.

This study points to worrying trends in how far two great power contenders, Russia and China, have been willing to go to assert themselves in the international arena. It concludes that increased willingness to resort to brinkmanship has heightened the danger of a ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’-type event that could spiral into uncontrollable escalation.

Based on a several unique new datasets that were specifically assembled for this project, as well as a number of different analytical tools and methods, this study provides quantitative evidence that great power assertiveness has risen significantly over the past few decades. China’s assertiveness has increased most sharply (by about 50% since 1979), but remains at a lower level than Russia’s, which has risen more modestly yet still shows a marked increase since President Putin’s third term in office. Second, both countries’ assertive deeds surpass their rhetoric, which should be a cause for concern: they walk the walk even more than they talk the talk. This applies to both the military, political and economic domains. However, one positive conclusion is that non-confrontational forms of assertiveness continue to outweigh the aggressive actions of both countries. And finally, China increasingly flexes its military muscle. Russia presents a more mixed picture, although here too the Russian baseline remains significantly higher than the Chinese one.

You can download the study with the button on the right.

This study is part of the Strategic Monitor 2014, an innovative new report by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) that draws on in-depth research and cutting-edge analytical tools to explore some key trends and challenges to our global security environment. The report consists of four studies focusing on the following themes:

• Great power assertiveness;
• The role of pivot states in regional and global security;
• Vulnerable states in the Middle East and North Africa;
• The growing role of non-state actors in security affairs.

You can find our report here.

Decades of rising prosperity and increasing interdependence between states have significantly diminished the chance of direct conflict. But new security challenges now threaten to undermine this trend. The HCSS Strategic Monitor 2014 explores four such challenges to our global security environment: assertiveness of China and Russia, the rise of ‘pivot states’, instability in the MENA region, and the changing role of non-state actors in security issues.

It yields four main conclusions:

1. There has been a marked rise in the assertiveness of great powers in recent years, made manifest in ever more confrontational moves, from the Russian annexation of the Crimea to the enhanced Chinese presence in the South-Chinese Sea. This implies a significant increase in the chance of great power conflict.
2. Tensions manifest themselves primarily in ‘pivot states’, such as Ukraine, where the spheres of influence of rival great powers overlap.
3. Regional conflict and instability are edging ever closer to the periphery of Europe. Many MENA states remain vulnerable to specific forms of conflict.
4. Security threats, and particularly solutions, will come more and more from non-state actors.

The report was presented on May 21st 2014 to the Dutch Minister of Defense, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert. The minister commended the report, stating that it demonstrates “that there is no standard, catch-all recipe for deploying military force […] we must be prepared for a plurality of operations.” She went on to say that “the Strategic Monitor is a crucial tool for our Defense policy development.” She also expressed hope that the developments identified in the report will be incorporated in the current and ongoing security debate, especially since “[Dutch] society is slowly regaining its awareness of the value of defense. People are waking up.”

You can download the Strategic Monitor 2014 report (in English) with the button on the right.

You can download the (Dutch) press release here
 

Many major global cities today are developing a recognizable international profile to become vibrant and attractive hubs to live, work and play. While some cities promote their architecture, quality of life, or the creativity of their industries for this purpose, the city of The Hague enhances its international reputation by emphasizing the presence of prominent international institutions.

This global standing has been further improved through the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS), the largest conference ever held in the city involving the most comprehensive security precautions ever seen on Dutch soil. Such international profiling initiatives yield a wide range of opportunities, but they also present risks as they impact local economic activity and urban livability.

The second HSD Issue Brief disentangles these concerns and dilemmas, and suggests ways to find a more effective balance between security and livability in cities. 

Download the Issue Brief with the button on the right.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries 2014 including front matter and appendixes is now available online.

Published on an annual basis, this report is the earliest Government publication to furnish estimates covering nonfuel mineral industry data. Data sheets contain information on the domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, and 5-year salient statistics for more than 90 individual minerals and materials.

The report can be downloaded here.

The rapid increase of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) has thoroughly changed the debate on security and privacy concerns.
Criminals, terrorists, corporations and foreign spies develop ever more sophisticated ways to get their hands on our personal data. At the same time, some see the recently exposed surveillance programs of national security agencies as proof that we are approximating George Orwell’s 1984, where “[t]here was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment.”

The first HSD Issue Brief disentangles these concerns, and suggests ways to find a more effective and acceptable balance between privacy and security in a digital world.
 

The construction industry is one of the key economic sectors in Europe, but it was hit hard by the financial crisis. In the euro zone, employment in construction declined by a quarter since 2008. These difficult times raise important questions about the future path of the construction industry.

The Sustainable Urban (Re)Construction Briefing argues that renovation is going to play an increasingly important role in the overall construction market – for several reasons. One of them is the urgency of climate change mitigation. Europe has a large stock of buildings, which together contribute more than a third of CO2 emissions in the EU. In order to substantially improve the energy efficiency of the building stock, renovation rates should increase significantly. More generally, given that the renewal rate of the building stock in Europe is quite low (less than 1% per annum in recent years) renovation is essential for achieving society’s economic, environmental and social goals.

The Briefing describes the various aspects of renovation and maintenance activities in the EU, and explores their potential to become the main growth driver for the European construction market.

Download the report with the button on the right.
 

De schaliegasrevolutie in de Verenigde Staten (VS) kan op de lange termijn tot onrust in traditionele olie- en gasexporterende landen in de nabijheid van de Europese Unie (EU) leiden. Dit kan gebeuren als druk op de olieprijs ontstaat door een combinatie van energietransitie (gas voor olie) en ontkoppeling van de Europese economie en energiegebruik. Een lagere olieprijs leidt dan tot moeilijkheden voor de overheidsfinanciën van traditionele energie-exporterende landen.

In het kader van het ‘Strategy & Change programma’ heeft het Den Haag Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) een studie uitgevoerd naar de geopolitieke gevolgen van de winning van schaliegas. HCSS roept de EU op om nieuwe afhankelijkheden met energie- exporterende landen aan te gaan gericht op een verdere ontwikkeling van hun economie en samenleving teneinde instabiliteit voor te zijn.

The US’ shale gas revolution could in the long term destabilize traditional oil- and gas exporters in the European Union (EU) neighborhood: A combination of substitution effects and greater energy efficiency, could put pressure on the price of oil, leading to fiscal difficulties in traditional hydrocarbon exporting countries.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) conducted a study on the geopolitical consequences of shale gas in the context of the ‘Strategy & Change program’. HCSS calls upon the EU to seek alternate interdependencies with the oil and gas exporters in its immediate neighborhood, leading to a further development of these nations.

To download the report, please click on the button on the right.

The Dutch healthcare system is among the best in the world: for many years it has ranked high in the Euro Health Consumer Index, and in first place in 2012. The Index contains 42 different indicators from a user perspective. Compared with other countries we spend a good deal of money on healthcare, the tidy sum of 87 billion euros a year.

But not withstanding this high rating, are we getting maximum value for money? And can we keep the cost of care under control?

The report can be downloaded using the button on the right.

De Nederlandse gezondheidszorg behoort tot de wereldtop en scoort al jaren hoog in de Euro Health Consumer Index. In vergelijking met andere landen geven we veel geld uit aan de zorg, zo’n 87 miljard euro per jaar.

Maar krijgen we ondanks die hoge score wel maximaal waar voor ons geld? En kunnen we de kosten van de zorg nog in de hand houden?

Download het rapport hieronder.

www.TNO.nl/innoverenvoorgezondheid

Over kosten, baten en kwaliteit van gezondheid en zorg

Wordt de zorg in de toekomst onbetaalbaar? In dit paper gaan we in op gezondheid en zorg, op de aard van de kostenstijgingen, hoe ernstig die zijn en wat we daaraan kunnen doen.

Download het paper hieronder.
 

 De EU is grotendeels zelfvoorzienend in basisvoedingsmiddelen. Daarom lijkt de
voedselzekerheid van de EU gegarandeerd. Maar schijn bedriegt, want de EU is arm aan grondstoffen, inclusief grondstoffen voor de landbouw. De EU is zich de laatste jaren bewust geworden van haar kwetsbaarheid voor grondstoffenschaarste, maar de aandacht gaat tot dusver vooral uit naar grondstoffen voor de industrie. Dit advies van het Platform Landbouw, Innovatie en Samenleving richt zich op zeven voor de Europese landbouw kritische grondstoffen: soja, de minerale macronutriënten fosfaat en kalium en de minerale micronutriënten zink, seleen, molybdeen en borium. Deze grondstoffen zijn niet vervangbaar in de landbouw en de voedselketen, maar wel in meer of mindere mate in de industrie.

Voor het volledige rapport, inclusief samenvatting, klik hier.

 De mate waarin een land of regio zijn voedselproductie kan optimaliseren hangt af van de aanwezigheid van noodzakelijke grondstoffen, dan wel de mogelijkheid om hierover te kunnen beschikken alsmede de capaciteit om de grondstoffen te ver- en bewerken tot nuttige inputs voor de voedselproductie. Daarmee is het vraagstuk een geopolitiek vraagstuk: wat kan een land of bedrijf politiek-economisch in stelling brengen om het aanbod van die grondstoffen te garanderen, nu en in de toekomst?

Klik hier voor het volledige rapport inclusief samenvatting.

The poster "Peace and Conflict Across Time" assesses long-term fluctuations across various types of conflict, whilst focusing on quintessential pillars of peace rather than on drivers of conflict.

In documenting the history of peace and conflict from ancient times to the present, it brings together arguments and data provided by various scholars and research institutions (including Bowles, Brecke, Goldstein, Lebow, Levy, Morris, and Pinker, as well as the Correlates of War Project, the Uppsala Conflict Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, and the Center for Systemic Peace). The poster seeks to convey academic research in a useful, understandable and accessible fashion to both security and defense professionals and the general public at large.

To download the poster click the PDF on the right.

Hard copies will be offered to invited guests at HCSS while stocks last.