De inzet van desinformatie en nepnieuws van Russische zijde is aan de orde van de dag. Afgelopen jaar intervenieerde Rusland in de Amerikaanse presidentiële verkiezingscampagne om de kandidatuur van Hillary Clinton te verzwakken. Begin dit jaar verspreidden Russische trollen valse berichten over de seksuele geaardheid van de Franse presidentskandidaat Emmanuel Macron.
De inzet van desinformatie en nepnieuws van Russische zijde is aan de orde van de dag. Afgelopen jaar intervenieerde Rusland in de Amerikaanse presidentiële verkiezingscampagne om de kandidatuur van Hillary Clinton te verzwakken. Begin dit jaar verspreidden Russische trollen valse berichten over de seksuele geaardheid van de Franse presidentskandidaat Emmanuel Macron. Ook Nederland is niet gevrijwaard van Russische propaganda activiteiten, zoals omtrent de bevindingen van de Onderzoeksraad voor de Veiligheid over het neerschieten van vlucht MH17. Deze activiteiten ondermijnen de democratische rechtsorde en het vertrouwen van burgers in haar instituties en waarden. In deze issue brief schetsen wij de omvang van deze activiteiten en doen zeven aanbevelingen voor wat de Nederlandse samenleving kan doen om zich hier beter tegen te beschermen.
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Auteurs: Michel Rademaker (HCSS), Tim Sweijs (HCSS), Joris Voorhoeve (Hoogleraar Internationale Organisaties, Universiteit Leiden).
Digitalization has taken a predominant role in the Netherlands. The Netherlands considers itself one of the leading ICT countries, promotes itself as ‘a safe place to do business’ and aspires to be the digital gateway of Europe. This report will first estimate the current and prospective size of the Dutch digital economy and the ICT sector, and later analyze how much the latter contributes to the national economy.
Digitalization has taken a predominant role in the Netherlands. The Netherlands considers itself one of the leading ICT countries, promotes itself as ‘a safe place to do business’ and aspires to be the digital gateway of Europe. This report will first estimate the current and prospective size of the Dutch digital economy and the ICT sector, and later analyze how much the latter contributes to the national economy. Next, we provide a holistic overview of the current level of public and private investments in cybersecurity, followed by an analysis estimating the Dutch cybersecurity market by comparing different studies.
Taking into account the 1,5% loss of its national GDP to cybercrime, which correlates well to the €10bn value loss through cyber risk in the Netherlands, the Dutch private sector, and especially the government, can invest more in cybersecurity to reduce the impact and damage cybercrime and –risks. In addition, there is a drastic increase in demand anticipated for cybersecurity experts and IoT developers. As a result, when this is solved, one might conclude that the investments in cybersecurity will exceed the 10% norm.
This research is directed to the National Cyber Testbed Initiative of The Hague Security Delta (December 2016).
The report can be downloaded using the button on the right.
Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations.
Events unfolded once again at a swirling pace in 2016. Terrorists hit Europe’s capital in March. The British population voted for Brexit in June. Turkish armed forces failed to topple Erdoğan in July. A resurgent Russia flexed its military muscles again in the Middle East and actively interfered in American elections, in which the American population elected Trump, in November. We are worried but certainly not surprised by the volatility of contemporary international relations. In previous editions of our contribution to the Dutch government’s Strategic Monitor, we already observed a surge in assertive behavior, noted a dangerous uptick in crises, and warned for the contagiousness of political violence.
The current volatility is not a coincidence, but rather the result of fundamental disturbances of the global order that are greatly amplified by rapid technological developments. Most mainstream explanations of recent turbulence focus on power transitions (the decline of the West and the rise of the rest), the concomitant return to more aggressive forms of power politics, and a backlash against globalization. What strikes us is that many of the explanations ignore what we consider one of the most striking mega trends that is reshaping the dynamics of power: the ongoing process of disintermediation.
The StratMon 2016-2017 analyzes global trends in confrontation, cooperation and conflict based on different datasets. This year the report also contains case studies on Turkey, Moldova and The rise and fall of ISIS. Chapters analyzing the many faces of political violence and 'the other side of the security coin' are also included.
Download the report via the button on the right.
Speech Minister Koenders (NL)
You can also download the separate chapters:
Nowcasting Geodynamics, Great Powers and Pivoting
Case study: A farewell to the West? Turkey's Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup
Case study: A national identity crisis? Moldova in Flux between East and West
The many faces of Political Violence
The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability
Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of paths lay ahead of a possible Turkish “pivot” away from the West? What does this mean for the West’s strategic interests in the region?
Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of paths lay ahead of a possible Turkish “pivot” away from the West? What does this mean for the West’s strategic interests in the region?
Authored by Dr. Barin Kayaoğlu of the American University of Iraq, this year’s study entitled “A Farewell to the West? Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt” explores the conditions that could lead Turkey to change its foreign policy direction in the near future, exploring four distinctive possibilities that could all have important implications for Europe, and the wider world.
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
HCSS has tracked overall trends in global cooperation and conflict as part of its contribution to the Strategic Monitor of the Dutch government. Our study takes into consideration two overarching questions: “Will state or non-state actors be most dominant in the future world?” and “Will whoever becomes most dominant be more cooperative, or more conflictual?”
HCSS has tracked overall trends in global cooperation and conflict as part of its contribution to the Strategic Monitor of the Dutch government. Our study takes into consideration two overarching questions: “Will state or non-state actors be most dominant in the future world?” and “Will whoever becomes most dominant be more cooperative, or more conflictual?”
Our approach to this ‘monitoring’ effort aspires to collate and curate a systematic empirical evidence base that allows all relevant stakeholders – analysts, military planners, policy-makers, but also interested companies, NGOs, citizens, etc. – to get a better grip on these fundamental international trends. With the advent of (open-source) event datasets, this has become more possible than ever.
This year we updated our findings using data from three different sources and have uncovered a number of different trends. How can we leverage big data to inform policymakers on complex geopolitical trends in our new uncertain era? What are the world’s most cooperative countries? Where in the world can we find the highest concentrations of conflictual behavior? What is the Netherlands’ position in the ebb and flow of international communications?
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic.
HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic.
We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt.
This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future.
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
Corruption and the perceived partiality of the justice system and state administration of Moldova have long frustrated efforts – both internal and external – to improve its domestic politics. It nevertheless remains an important partner for both the European Union and Russia, however its strategic positioning between these two powers have left its citizens stretched at times, even torn, in terms of national identity.
Corruption and the perceived partiality of the justice system and state administration of Moldova have long frustrated efforts – both internal and external – to improve its domestic politics. It nevertheless remains an important partner for both the European Union and Russia, however its strategic positioning between these two powers have left its citizens stretched at times, even torn, in terms of national identity.
Looking into recent domestic developments as well as the EU and Russia’s strategies towards Moldova in recent years, this study gives a brief overview of the European and Russian stakes held in Moldova and how its recent presidential election may change Moldova’s future geostrategic positioning.
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
The modern era’s Great Power Peace has come under severe strain in recent years. The seams of the western-based world political order have stretched to the point of breaking, with non-state actors rising in response to exploit the global climate of paralysis and uncertainty. Indeed, violence levels are at historically high levels that haven’t been seen since 2004. But what does the violence waged on Europe’s borders mean for European citizens and their leaders?
The modern era’s Great Power Peace has come under severe strain in recent years. The seams of the western-based world political order have stretched to the point of breaking, with non-state actors rising in response to exploit the global climate of paralysis and uncertainty. Indeed, violence levels are at historically high levels that haven’t been seen since 2004. But what does the violence waged on Europe’s borders mean for European citizens and their leaders?
HCSS has analyzed trends in political violence using various open-data sources and provides a forecast of civil war onset risk for the year 2017 using in-house forecasting models based on rich quantitative datasets and complex theoretical frameworks.
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it originate from? How has it been able to establish itself so quickly? Can it actually persist? Can it be defeated?
Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it originate from? How has it been able to establish itself so quickly? Can it actually persist? Can it be defeated?
The aim of this year’s study, entitled “The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability”, is to understand the organization, its motivations, its inherent weaknesses, as well as its ability to endure. A broader aim is to set out how it could develop as it comes under ever more pressure by regional powers and, in the case of its defeat, how to prevent the arrival of the next ISIS.
A key message of this chapter is that ISIS is a ‘child of its time’ and is not destined to persist. Its professed millenarian or eschatological bent is meant to cast the conflict between the Caliphate and the rest of the word as a cosmic battle, but in reality is largely of instrumental value. Also, while its rise could have been prevented, its fall looks all but inevitable, even if it remains unclear what will replace it.
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
The presence of peace is more than the absence of conflict. Analyses and evaluations of the state of the international security environment often focus solely on the most concerning developments and tend to fall back on various conflict-centric metrics when providing assessments of a given security landscape. This chapter, entitled “The Other Side of the Security Coin” investigates a number of positive socioeconomic trends occurring on a global level and how they can contribute to sustainable peace in the future.
The presence of peace is more than the absence of conflict. Analyses and evaluations of the state of the international security environment often focus solely on the most concerning developments and tend to fall back on various conflict-centric metrics when providing assessments of a given security landscape. This chapter, entitled “The Other Side of the Security Coin” investigates a number of positive socioeconomic trends occurring on a global level and how they can contribute to sustainable peace in the future.
Improving citizens’ access to socioeconomic opportunities and livelihood-enhancing goods and services is a key factor in increasing the stake that citizens hold in the state of peace in their communities. Fitting within global trends such as the rise of the platform economy and social media, the role of technological and developmental processes improving individual empowerment will become more important for security and defense organizations in the near future. As to how we can leverage the dramatic changes ongoing throughout the world to better suit our security objectives remains yet to be seen. This study provides a brief overview of these trends and identifies the options for security and defense organizations to remain on top of them.
This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
With the World Health Organization (WHO), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the U.S. Blue Ribbon panel publishing reports on the emerging risks of biological weaponry in past months, there is a new sense of urgency regarding biological weapons. In August 2016, the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon told the Security Council that “non-state actors are actively seeking chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.”
With the World Health Organization (WHO), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the U.S. Blue Ribbon panel publishing reports on the emerging risks of biological weaponry in past months, there is a new sense of urgency regarding biological weapons. In August 2016, the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon told the Security Council that “non-state actors are actively seeking chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.”
This report presents the changing dynamics of the development and use of biological weapons and the preparation against them. The dynamics relate to technological advances in biotechnology and the concomitant attraction to non-state actors to use biological agents as weapons due to their financial appeal and diverse impact. The relative ease with which biological weapons can be produced, and the intent of non-state actors to use biological weapons- based on historical precedent and recent surge in international terrorism- call for a renewed focus on this field and an increased effort to respond to these developments. We provide illustrations of new policy initiatives in a variety of countries and outline the current state of play in the Netherlands, providing a point of departure to discuss whether the current approach is sufficient to tackle the upcoming issues.
The report can be downloaded using the button on the right
HCSS studie voor het ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken: Geopolitieke veranderingen eist een revolutie in het denken over het Nederlandse buitenlandbeleid.
HCSS studie voor het ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken: Geopolitieke veranderingen eist een revolutie in het denken over het Nederlandse buitenlandbeleid.
Drastische veranderingen in de wereld ondermijnen de grondslagen van het Nederlands buitenlandbeleid. Geopolitieke veranderingen tasten het multilateralisme van sterke internationale instituties, internationaal recht, handelsverdragen en een door waarden gedreven buitenlandsbeleid aan. De Brexit en de verkiezing van President Trump verzwakt de positie van Nederland in het machtspolitieke spel dat van oudsher gebaseerd is op hechte relaties met de Britten en Amerikanen. De sociale media, desinformatie en nepnieuws bemoeilijken het realiseren van een consistent en effectief buitenlandbeleid
De vraag waarmee deze studie voor het ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken begint, is in hoeverre Nederland in staat is om vast te houden aan de traditionele uitgangspunten van het Nederlandse buitenlandbeleid, die geworteld zijn in onze historische tradities en gevormd zijn door de internationaal-politieke ontwikkeling van de naoorlogse tijd. De conclusie is dat dit niet mogelijk is en dat fundamentele aanpassing van het buitenlandbeleid noodzakelijk is. Dit vereist niet minder dan een revolutie in het denken.
Op basis van een analyse van twaalf mondiale trends wordt in deze HCSS studie een aantal nieuwe handelingsbeginselen geformuleerd voor ons buitenlandbeleid. De belangrijkste boodschap is dat visie-gedreven pragmatisme de nieuwe leidraad van dit beleid zou moeten worden. Dit houdt in dat daar waar traditionele partnerschappen onder druk staan er moet worden geanticipeerd op het zoeken naar alternatieve partners. Dit betekent bijvoorbeeld ook dat waarden, verdragen en instituties meer instrumenteel moeten worden benaderd, en niet per se als doel op zich moeten worden beschouwd.
De uitdaging waar Nederland internationaal voor staat is om een buitenlandse politiek te bedrijven waarin geopolitieke realiteiten duidelijk weerspiegeld zijn, maar waarbij tevens de sociaal-politieke en economische waarden en instituties die ons land welvaart en stabiliteit hebben gebracht zoveel mogelijk in stand kunnen worden gehouden. Deze HCSS studie biedt daartoe concrete aanbevelingen om de plaats van Nederland in de wereld toekomstbestendig te maken.
De veiligheidsuitdagingen in de wereld zijn complex en talrijk en het ziet er niet naar uit dat de situatie binnenkort verbetert. Crises die instabiliteit in en om Europa veroorzaken nemen in aantal toe, ontwikkelen zich snel en zijn vaak complex van aard. Het is van groot belang dat Europese landen die samenwerken in NAVO en/of EU verband het managen van crises (weer) goed in de vingers krijgen.
De veiligheidsuitdagingen in de wereld zijn complex en talrijk en het ziet er niet naar uit dat de situatie binnenkort verbetert. Crises die instabiliteit in en om Europa veroorzaken nemen in aantal toe, ontwikkelen zich snel en zijn vaak complex van aard. Het is van groot belang dat Europese landen die samenwerken in NAVO en/of EU verband het managen van crises (weer) goed in de vingers krijgen.
In een recente studie, die deel uitmaakt van de Strategische Monitor 2016, heeft HCSS zich gericht op de vraag in welke militaire capaciteiten Europa moet investeren om effectief te kunnen bijdragen aan een geïntegreerde crisismanagementaanpak en welke passende en waardevolle bijdrage Nederland daaraan kan leveren. Aan de hand van zes scenario’s – drie aan de oostflank en drie aan de zuidflank van Europa – is geanalyseerd wat ‘Europa’ mist aan militaire capaciteiten om, zo nodig zonder al te veel Amerikaanse hulp, de crises aan de randen van ons continent niet uit de hand te laten lopen. De conclusie is niet positief, er is werk aan de winkel en de urgentie om te versterken is hoog.
In deze policy brief beschrijven we onze bevindingen, als bijdrage aan het lopende debat over de doorontwikkeling van de krijgsmacht in een meerjarig (financieel) perspectief. Voorwaarde voor een passende en waardevolle Nederlandse bijdrage aan het Europese vermogen om crises adequaat te managen is de beschikbaarheid van voldoende budget. Voor het welvarende Nederland met grote handelsbelangen zou groeien naar het Europees gemiddelde (was 1,43% BBP in 2015) in de volgende kabinetsperiode een voorzichtige stap in de goede richting zijn.
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In the face of a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape, contemporary perspectives on security have drastically changed in reaction to new conflict factors that have arisen out of, and are related to, unpredictable patterns of climate change. Already, in both the short and long term future, it is increasingly likely that conflict will result from a multitude of such stress factors. Environmental stress, stress caused by climate change in particular, is only one of these factors. Nonetheless, in light of its diverse and multiplier impacts, it remains an important one.
In the face of a rapidly-changing geopolitical landscape, contemporary perspectives on security have drastically changed in reaction to new conflict factors that have arisen out of, and are related to, unpredictable patterns of climate change. Already, in both the short and long term future, it is increasingly likely that conflict will result from a multitude of such stress factors. Environmental stress, stress caused by climate change in particular, is only one of these factors. Nonetheless, in light of its diverse and multiplier impacts, it remains an important one.
This report, intended for policy makers and business professionals, examines the economic aspects of the relatively under-explored concept of planetary security. Planetary security refers to the role of the environment in geopolitical risks and conflicts. The report evaluates the vulnerabilities and resilience of countries to environmentally induced conflict. It first discusses the concept of planetary security and the role of economics therein, and then builds a quantitative framework and monitor capturing the vulnerabilities and resilience of different countries.
The monitor is innovative in its inclusion of a variety of security risks related to the transition to a low carbon economy: Conflict Vulnerability, Climate Change Vulnerability, Low Carbon Risk and Economic Resilience. These layers are combined to create a Consolidated Risk Layer and a Consolidated Resilience Layer, in order to provide insight into how resilience to the above vulnerabilities could be bolstered.
The monitor and accompanying report, have been produced by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and Clingendael Institute as a key input to the Planetary Security Initiative conference, which took place in The Hague, the Netherlands on December 5 and 6, supported by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs. To access the Planetary Security Monitor click here.
To download the report, please click on the button on the right.
This study addressed the question of future food challenges and how these may play out. Part of the analysis focused on the question as to how we may enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change, increased population growth and rising incomes worldwide on future food systems. The worldwide food system is vulnerable to many influences. The approach used in this study focused on the most significant possible influencers of drivers, or the elements having the most effect on how drivers will develop.
This study addressed the question of future food challenges and how these may play out. Part of the analysis focused on the question as to how we may enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change, increased population growth and rising incomes worldwide on future food systems. The worldwide food system is vulnerable to many influences. The approach used in this study focused on the most significant possible influencers of drivers, or the elements having the most effect on how drivers will develop. This approach was employed due to our understanding that the system’s complexity cannot be reduced to the drivers alone. The applied research method however allows us to look at the different aspects while recognizing their interlinkages.
Click on the button on the right to download the report.