The Implications of a Turkish "Pivot" After the July 2016 Coup Attempt

March 9th 2017 - 12:00

As part of our annual Strategic Monitor initiative, HCSS has released a number of interactive Tableau Stories that each show a portion of the data HCSS has used to generate our findings for the 2016-2017 StratMon Report. 

The status quo within the Middle East could potentially have been dealt a devastating blow in the wake of the failed July 2016 military coup attempt to oust Turkish President Erdoğan. While important questions regarding the full domestic implications of this event remain still unanswered, HCSS has analyzed and evaluated possible changes in Turkish foreign policy behavior and how they may affect its international strategic partners, such as the United States, the European Union, Russia, and China. 

Written by Dr. Barın Kayaoğlu, our analysis synthesizes expert qualitative insight with quantitative data to investigate three distinctive possible paths for Turkey and the implications of such "pivoting" behavior. This Tableau story details the rise of Turkey as a regional power and tracks a number of quantitative indicators that may provide some simple answers to an otherwise complex issue.

The StratMon chapter on Turkey: A Farewell to the West? Turkey's Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup


Turkish trends in influence throughout the Middle East compared to other nations in the region. Click on the image to access the full Tableau story.















Tim Sweijs is a Senior Strategist. He is the initiator, creator, and author of numerous studies, methodologies, and tools for research projects in horizon scanning, conflict analysis, international and national security risk assessment, and capability development. He has led multicenter research projects for both private and public sector organizations – including the European Commission and various European governments.

Stephan De Spiegeleire is senior scientist at HCSS. He has Master’s degrees from the Graduate Institute in Geneva and Columbia University in New York, as well as a C.Phil. degree in Political Science from UCLA. He worked for the RAND Corporation for nearly ten years, interrupted by stints at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik and the WEU’s Institute for Security Studies. Mr. De Spiegeleire started out as a Soviet specialist, but has since branched out into several fields of international security and defense policy.

Hannes Rõõs is a data scientist at HCSS. He has a Master’s degree in Sociology from the University of Tartu and also holds Bachelor’s degrees in both Political Science and Sociology from the same university. In addition, he studied at the University of Oslo and the University of Mannheim for a total of three semesters. Prior to HCSS, Hannes worked as a research and teaching assistant at the University of Tartu and the associated Centre of Excellence for Strategic Sustainability. 

Willem Oosterveld is a Strategic Analyst at HCSS. He holds degrees in political science, law and history, having studied in Amsterdam, Leiden, Paris, New York and Harvard. A former Fulbright scholar, he earned a PhD in the history of international law from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva.